On Tuesday, January 13, 2026, the Center for Economic and Social Studies for Development (CESDE) of the University Espiritu Santo, received businessmen, representatives of various sectors of the economy, and members of the academia, in its event "The Center for Economic and Social Studies for Development (CESDE) of the University Espiritu Santo". Quo Vadis Ecuador 2026: Economic and Political Perspectives and Business Challenges in a Breakfast Conversation format. The event included three main segments and a final reflective discussion.
Economic Vision
The first segment was given by Pablo Arosemena, former Minister of Economy and Finance and current Director General of the EUREKA Entrepreneurship Center of UEES. Arosemena explained how the ecuadorian economy will grow by about 2.1 1Q03Q This represents a slowdown with respect to 2025. Additionally, he highlighted that Ecuador's main macroeconomic conditioning factor is its fiscal deficit and the high level of public debt, which forces the State to seek financing through external debt. However, he explained how this year the issuance of bonds can be expected to solve part of this problem. Additionally, he pointed out that insecurity and labor informality continue to be structural obstacles to growth, for which it is absolutely necessary to unite as a country in order to solve. For businessmen, he stressed that, despite the complex environment, there are sectorial opportunities, expected growth in sales, a promising trade agreement with China that is in its third year, and a greater facility and supply of commercial credits to both SMEs and corporations.
His two final messages were: economic problems are more political than economic, as every sensible economist will agree on what the country's urgent needs are. However, whether there is the decision and the political capital to execute them is the constant question.
On the other hand, he extended a message of reflection to businessmen: “a good macroeconomy does not bring forward a bad business, and a bad macroeconomy will not sink a good business”. The key is to build a good business regardless of what happens at the country level.
Political and Geopolitical Perspective of Ecuador
Héctor Yépez, member of CESDE, former Assemblyman for Guayas, founding Director of the School of Government, Director of the Arbitration and Mediation Center and Procurator of the Espíritu Santo University began his speech by breaking down the why of the event name Quo Vadis: Where are we going? To begin with, he explained how we have had 7 elections in 2.5 years, in addition to a clear institutional wear and tear, and a government that has already finished its “honeymoon” phase. On the other hand, he highlighted how there is currently no 2/3 of the opposition in the Assembly, as there has been in previous governments. This proportion represents a qualified majority, which is necessary for transcendental decisions, such as presidential vetoes, political trials, reforms, and more.
Regarding the question "Where are we going?", the speaker explained that he cannot speak with certainty, but he can speak frankly. Ecuador's political scenario may take several directions, but one need is key: consensus and dialogue at the national level. The year 2026 will be a year of uncertainty, however, he can highlight that, for the approval of laws, the ruling party does have a majority in the assembly, while to make reforms to the Constitution the scenario becomes more complex by needing the popular vote. He highlighted how the electoral factor will be key throughout this year, since, in spite of not having elections, it will be a key year for the sectional elections next February. These elections could come as a surprise, since there is currently such a great political polarization, there is an opportunity for third parties. Geopolitically, he highlighted how the United States, under the mandate of current President Donald J. Trump, should be kept under close scrutiny. The decisions of this government are unpredictable, but we can see that it is more willing to intervene than we thought, observing the latest developments in the region.
Finally, he explained how consensus is possible if the will exists. This will begins with the citizens themselves, who would currently demonize the two most important parties in the country sitting down at a table to talk. However, this dialogue is indispensable in order to solve the structural problems of the country for the good of all.
Business Environment and Challenges 2026
Francisco Alemán, Dean of Entrepreneurship, Business and Economics at UEES together with César Espinoza Ph.D Director of the Graduate School of Business ESAI Business School of UEES, both members of CESDE discussed four main topics: Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, Operational Efficiency and Family Governance. They were based on a key question: Resist or build for the future? Companies must be prepared to adapt with agility, transcend current challenges and redefine their leadership, while facing the macroeconomic challenges of a country that seems to make “resisting” the priority. Speakers highlighted innovation as a structured process, which must be designed for each organization in a systematic way and constantly applied, including fostering a culture that embraces risk and daily experimentation.
To this end, they explained how it is necessary to combat this risk-averse culture that fears failure, the dependence on past success and processes, and the absence of clear methodologies and resources dedicated specifically to these projects. In addition, they highlighted the role of AI and its “quick-wins” as an operational and accessible tool for companies of all sizes, which must be implemented for concrete and measurable solutions. In addition, they showed the evolution of investment in AI in the markets, and projections that show that by 2030 the size of this industry is projected to be almost four times larger than it is today.
Finally, they presented how in Ecuador, the backbone of the economy are family businesses, and how their longevity and success depend on a family governance that transcends generations ensuring a long-term vision. Therefore, the synergy between an acceleration mindset such as AI, the search for efficiency, strong family governance and a decisive digital transformation is key to building resilience and sustainability in a company.
The event culminated with a discussion moderated by Santiago Velazquez Ph.D Dean of the Faculty of Law, Politics and Development, in which participated the economist Alberto Dahik Garzozi, General Director of Graduate Studies and Director of CESDE of UEES, and the lawyer Pamela Aguirre Ph.D Director of the Legal and Social Observatory, and member of CESDE. This discussion provided a final reflection on everything discussed during the day, both from a political and economic perspective.
